An autonomous Tesla being used for Uber collided with an SUV at a crossroads in suburban Las Vegas in April, sparking concerns about the safety of self-driving “robotaxis” operating in a regulatory gray area in US cities.
Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, plans to unveil his vision for a robotaxi, a self-driving vehicle designed for ride-hailing services, on October 10. He has long considered creating a Tesla-operated taxi network using autonomous vehicles owned by individuals .
Despite its limitations, many ride-hail drivers utilizing Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, which costs $99 per month, find it beneficial as it reduces stress, allowing them to work longer hours and earn more money.
Reuters was the first to report on the Las Vegas accident and the subsequent investigation by federal safety officials, as well as the widespread use of Tesla autonomous software among ride-hail drivers.
While self-driving cabs with human backup drivers from companies like Alphabet’s Waymo and General Motors’ Cruise are heavily regulated, authorities state that Tesla drivers are solely responsible for their vehicles, regardless of whether they use driver-assist software. Unlike Waymo and Cruise, Tesla’s FSD is categorized as requiring driver oversight rather than being fully autonomous.
The other driver involved in the April 10 Las Vegas accident, who was hospitalized, was found to be at fault for not yielding the right of way, according to the police report. The Tesla driver, Justin Yoon, claimed in a YouTube video that the Tesla software failed to decelerate his vehicle even after the SUV appeared from a blind spot caused by another vehicle.
Yoon, known for his “Project Robotaxi” YouTube channel, was seated in the driver’s seat of his Tesla with his hands off the wheel when the incident occurred in a suburban area of Las Vegas, as shown in the car’s footage. The Tesla on FSD was traveling at 46 mph (74 kph) and initially did not detect an SUV crossing the road in front of Yoon. Yoon took control at the last moment and steered the car to avoid a direct collision, as seen in the footage .
“It’s not perfect, it’ll make mistakes, it will probably continue to make mistakes,” Yoon mentioned in a video following the crash. Both Yoon and his passenger sustained minor injuries, and the car was declared a total loss.
Yoon had discussed using FSD with Reuters before publicly sharing videos of the accident but did not respond to requests for comment afterward.
Tesla did not provide a comment in response to requests. Reuters was unable to reach the Uber passenger and the other driver for comment.
Ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft, when asked about FSD, emphasized that drivers are accountable for safety.
Uber, in touch with the driver and passenger involved in the Las Vegas accident, referenced its community guidelines, stating that drivers are expected to maintain a safe environment for riders, even if their driving practices are within the legal bounds.
Uber also highlighted Tesla’s instructions, which advise drivers using FSD to keep their hands on the wheel and be prepared to take control at any moment.
Lyft stated, “Drivers agree that they will not engage in reckless behavior.”
Musk has ambitious plans for the FSD product, envisioning it as the basis for the robotaxi software. He aims to establish a Tesla-operated autonomous ride service using customers’ vehicles when not in use.
However, drivers speaking to Reuters also pointed out significant issues with the technology, such as sudden unexplained acceleration and braking. Some have chosen to stop using it in challenging scenarios like airport pickups, navigating parking lots, and construction zones.
“I do use it, but I’m not completely comfortable with it,” said Sergio Avedian, a ride-hail driver in Los Angeles and a senior contributor on “The Rideshare Guy” YouTube channel, an online community of ride-hailing drivers with nearly 200,000 subscribers.
Avedian avoids using FSD when carrying passengers. However, based on his conversations with fellow drivers on the channel, he estimates that 30% to 40% of Tesla ride-hail drivers across the US regularly use FSD.
FSD falls under the federal government’s classification as a form of partial automation that necessitates the driver’s full engagement and attentiveness while the system handles steering, acceleration, and braking. It has attracted increased regulatory and legal attention following at least two fatal accidents involving the technology. However, utilizing it for ride-hail services is not prohibited by law.
“Ride-share services permit the use of these partial automation systems in commercial environments, and this is something that should be subjected to significant scrutiny,” remarked Jake Foose, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights.
The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration acknowledged Yoon’s crash and had contacted Tesla for further details, but did not provide specific answers regarding additional regulations or guidelines.
Authorities in California, Nevada, and Arizona, which oversee the operations of ride-hail and robotaxi companies, stated that they do not regulate the use of FSD and similar systems, as they fall outside the scope of robotaxi or AV regulation. They refrained from commenting on the crash.
Uber recently updated its software to transmit passenger destination details to Tesla’s dashboard navigation system – a modification that benefits FSD users, according to Omar Qazi, a prominent user with 515,000 followers who posts under the handle @WholeMarsBlog and frequently receives public responses from Musk on the platform.
“This will simplify Uber rides on FSD even more,” Qazi stated in a post.
Industry experts noted that Tesla, Uber, and Lyft lack mechanisms to determine if a driver is both working for a ride-hailing company and using FSD.
While almost all major automakers offer some form of partial automation technology, most are limited in their capabilities and approved for use solely on highways. In contrast, Tesla claims that FSD enables the vehicle to drive itself nearly anywhere with active driver supervision but minimal intervention.
“I’m pleased that Tesla is implementing this and accomplishing it,” remarked David Kidd, a senior research scientist at the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. “However, from a safety perspective, it has raised numerous concerns.”
Kidd suggested that instead of new regulations, NHTSA should consider issuing fundamental, nonbinding guidelines to prevent the misuse of such technologies.
Missy Cummings, director of the George Mason University Autonomy and Robotics center and a former NHTSA advisor, emphasized that any federal oversight would necessitate a formal investigation into how ride-hail drivers utilize all driver-assistance technology, not just FSD.
“If Uber and Lyft were wise, they would get ahead of this and prohibit it,” she remarked.
Meanwhile, ride-hail drivers are expecting more from Tesla. Kaz Barnes, who has completed over 2,000 trips with passengers using FSD since 2022, expressed anticipation for the day when he could exit the car and let Musk’s network send it to work.
“It would be like removing the training wheels,” Barnes stated. “I hope to be able to do that with this car one day.”
Elon Musk Reveals Futuristic Details of the Tesla RoboTaxi
Elon Musk envisions a revolutionary future for Tesla’s RoboTaxi. He sees a world where cars are completely transformed, no longer needing human intervention, steering wheels, or pedals. Musk emphasizes that the goal is not simply to improve existing automotive technology but to completely redefine it .
Musk stated that they can easily create a car without steering wheels or pedals and can delete parts to accelerate the process if needed, highlighting Tesla’s commitment to designing vehicles for autonomy from the start.
Musk describes the concept of a dedicated RoboTaxi as futuristic, reflecting advanced underlying technology. He mentioned that it would have a unique design unlike anything seen on the road today, embodying the technological leap that Tesla is making.
Musk doesn’t just aim to create a single model but envisions a fleet of these vehicles, numbering in the millions, operating globally. He predicted that by next year, Tesla would have over a million cars on the road with full self-driving hardware He argues that this massive scale is essential not only for Tesla’s business model but also for transitioning the world to sustainable energy.
Musk also sees this technological shift as a catalyst for broader societal change. He believes that the convenience and safety of autonomous vehicles will make them the preferred choice for consumers, ultimately leading to a world where human-driven cars are considered relics of a less safe era.
Musk boldly claimed that in the future, consumers will want to outlaw people driving their own cars because it is unsafe. He believes that autonomous driving technology will become so advanced and reliable that the idea of humans controlling vehicles will seem antiquated and Hazardous.
Musk has made it clear that the technology and infrastructure to support this transformation are already in place. He stated that Tesla is uniquely positioned to lead this charge, with vehicle design and manufacturing, in-house computer hardware, in-house software development, and AI capabilities.
In essence, Musk’s vision for Tesla’s RoboTaxi is about creating a new paradigm for transportation, one that is safer, more efficient, and fundamentally different from anything that has come before. He concluded that the impact of Tesla’s RoboTaxi could extend far beyond the automotive industry , shaping the future of how we move and live.
Elon Musk’s vision for full autonomy in Tesla vehicles is based on his belief that artificial intelligence will be the key to unlocking a future where cars can navigate the world without human intervention. He believes that artificial intelligence will profoundly change the world. For Tesla, achieving full autonomy is not just about technological advancements but also about creating a comprehensive system that can learn, adapt, and ultimately drive more safely than any human could.
Tesla’s approach to achieving full autonomy relies heavily on digital neural networks and cameras, rather than more traditional methods like LIDAR or radar. Musk explained that Tesla’s technology mirrors the way humans drive, relying on visual input to navigate the environment. He emphasized that humans are biological neural nets and use eyes to drive, while the analog for digital is cameras and digital neural nets, making the case that Tesla’s technology is a natural progression from how we’ve driven for over a century.
Tesla faces a major challenge in achieving full autonomy, which involves ensuring that its vehicles can handle the complexities of real-world driving scenarios. According to Musk, the key to this is making the car “fully intelligent.” This goes beyond teaching the vehicle to follow traffic laws or recognize objects; it requires the ability to interpret and react to unpredictable situations, such as understanding the intentions of other drivers and pedestrians. Musk emphasized the sophistication required for true autonomy.
Musk is confident in Tesla’s progress toward full autonomy. He believes that Tesla is “very close” to achieving a level of autonomy where the car could navigate from point A to point B without any human input. For instance, he mentioned that he is currently in Austin and the car could take him to the airport without any interventions, showcasing the current capabilities of Tesla’s AI-driven system.
Nevertheless, the journey to full autonomy is not without challenges. Regulatory approval remains a significant barrier to the widespread deployment of fully autonomous vehicles. Musk acknowledges this but remains positive, stating that Tesla is working closely with regulators to ensure that its RoboTaxis can be legally and safely deployed.
Musk shared that the company will have the first operating RoboTaxis next year with no one in them, although not in all jurisdictions due to the lack of regulatory approval everywhere. He expressed confidence that at least some regions will grant regulatory approval, indicating that while the technology is nearly ready, full deployment will require cooperation with global regulatory bodies.
Ultimately, Musk envisions a future where Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are not only a technological marvel but also a ubiquitous part of everyday life, providing safer and more efficient transportation. The potential implications of this shift are significant, as it could dramatically reduce traffic accidents and transform how we perceive car ownership and mobility.
Musk noted that the average use of a passenger vehicle is only about 10 hours per week out of 168 hours, suggesting that autonomous vehicles could operate for a far greater portion of the day, increasing their utility and efficiency.
As Tesla moves closer to realizing full autonomy, the company continues to push the boundaries of what is possible in automotive technology. Musk emphasized the scale and ambition of Tesla’s quest to lead the world into a new era of autonomous driving.
Economic and Social Impact
The introduction of Tesla’s RoboTaxi fleet is set to bring about significant economic and social changes, reshaping industries and daily life. Elon Musk has frequently emphasized the transformative potential of autonomous vehicles, not just as a technological leap, but as a catalyst for broad societal shifts .
Musk has declared that the company will achieve truly massive scale, surpassing any scale achieved in the history of humanity, underlining the ambitious scope of Tesla’s plans. The economic implications of this scale are extensive, with the potential to revolutionize the transportation sector and create new avenues for economic growth.
One of the most immediate impacts of Tesla’s RoboTaxis could be on the cost of transportation. Musk has suggested that the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles could significantly reduce the cost of travel, making it more accessible to a wider population.
Musk has stated that it is financially illogical to buy anything other than a Tesla, highlighting the cost-efficiency of Tesla’s autonomous technology. By reducing the need for personal car ownership and making transportation as simple as summoning a RoboTaxi, Tesla could substantially lower household transportation expenses, freeing up income for other uses.
Furthermore, the economic model Musk envisions for the RoboTaxi network could provide new income opportunities for individuals and businesses. Tesla owners will have the option to add their vehicles to the RoboTaxi fleet, earning money when they’re not using their cars.
Musk explained that any customer will be able to add or remove their car to the Tesla Network, drawing a comparison to a blend of Uber and Airbnb. This could democratize access to income generation, transforming personal vehicles into revenue-generating assets.
The broader economic impact of Tesla’s autonomous vehicles could also extend to the labor market. While the shift to autonomous driving will likely displace some jobs, particularly in the transportation sector, it could also create new opportunities in areas like vehicle maintenance, software development, and fleet management.
Elon Musk has recognized the possibility of job displacement but contends that the overall advantages to society, such as improved safety and efficiency, outweigh the drawbacks. He has forecasted that consumers will eventually seek to prohibit human driving due to safety concerns, indicating that the society shift towards automation is unavoidable.
On a societal level, the emergence of self-driving vehicles could result in significant alterations in urban planning and human interaction with their surroundings. With RoboTaxis decreasing the necessity for individual car ownership, urban areas might witness a reduction in the need for parking spaces, enabling the creation of more green spaces, pedestrian zones, and other community-driven developments.
Moreover, the enhanced mobility provided by RoboTaxis could enhance transportation access for underserved communities, contributing to greater social fairness. Musk highlighted the potential for RoboTaxis to make transportation more efficient and widely accessible, noting that the usefulness of a passenger vehicle could increase substantial.
By transitioning more vehicles to electric and autonomous operation, Tesla could aid in reducing carbon emissions and finally supporting global efforts to combat climate change. Musk has emphasized that this transition is necessary to move the world sustainable energy, positioning towards Tesla’s autonomous vehicle initiative as a crucial element of the broader drive towards sustainability.
In summary, the economic and social implications of Tesla’s RoboTaxis are expected to be extensive and diverse. From reducing transportation expenses and creating new revenue streams to reshaping urban landscapes and advancing sustainability, the effects of this technology will be felt across numerous sectors and aspects of life. As Musk himself has stated, “This is gigantic,” and the world is only beginning to comprehend the full extent of the changes that Tesla’s autonomous vehicles will bring.
Challenges and Doubts
Despite Elon Musk’s ambitious vision for Tesla’s RoboTaxi fleet, substantial obstacles and skepticism persist. Tesla must surmount technical, regulatory, and societal hurdles on the path to full autonomy before its vision can materialize. Musk has acknowledged these challenges, remarking, “It turns out that in order to use this technology, the car has to really be quite fully intelligent.” Creating an autonomous vehicle capable of navigating the complexities of real-world driving is a considerable undertaking, and Musk himself has admitted that progress has been slower than initially expected.
One of the main challenges facing Tesla is the technical intricacy of achieving full autonomy. While the company has made significant progress in developing its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, there are still numerous exceptional scenarios in driving that the system must handle flawlessly. Musk explained that the vehicle must learn to interpret various situations and assess the intentions of drivers and pedestrians, emphasizing the need for the vehicle to possess situational awareness and decision-making capabilities comparable to or surpassing those of a human driver.
Apart from the technical challenges, Tesla must also navigate a complex and frequently inconsistent regulatory environment. Laws governing autonomous driving vary widely between countries and even within different states or regions, creating a patchwork of regulations that Tesla must adhere to.
Musk has expressed confidence that Tesla will soon receive regulatory approval for its RoboTaxis in certain jurisdictions, stating, “I’m confident we will have at least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year.” However, widespread approval is likely to take much longer, as regulators grapple with the ethical and safety implications of allowing fully autonomous vehicles on the road.
There are also doubts about the timeline and feasibility of Tesla’s ambitious objectives. Musk’s previous predictions regarding the timeline for full autonomy have experienced delays, leading some industry experts and analysts to question whether the technology is as close to deployment as Musk suggests.
The inherent unpredictability of software development, particularly in a complex field like autonomous driving, means that even minor setbacks can result in significant delays. Musk has stated, “I think we’re quite close to having the car be fully autonomous,” but there remains uncertainty about when this milestone will be achieved.
Additionally, there is doubt about whether consumers will completely accept the concept of autonomous vehicles, especially in the initial phases of implementation. While Musk imagines a future where human driving is considered unsafe and outdated, convincing the public to have faith in and adopt this new technology will involve overcoming significant psychological barriers.
The notion of giving up control to a machine, especially in a life-or-death situation like driving, is daunting for many individuals. Musk has recognized this challenge, likening it to the initial skepticism surrounding elevators: “Elevators used to be operated on a big lever… now you do not have elevator operators.”
Tesla will need to manufacture vehicles at an unprecedented scale while ensuring that finally each car meets the strict requirements for full autonomy. This will necessitate not only substantial investment but also flawless execution in manufacturing, software development, and customer support.
Musk has highlighted the extent of Tesla’s ambitions, stating frequently, “We’re going to move to just truly massive scale—scale that no company has ever achieved in the history of humanity.”
In summary, while the vision of Tesla’s RoboTaxi fleet is unquestionably daring and potentially transformative, the path ahead is anything but easy. Technical challenges, regulatory obstacles, consumer skepticism, and the sheer scale of the endeavor all present significant hurdles that Tesla must overcome.
However, as Musk himself has demonstrated time and again, he is undeterred by challenges, viewing them as part of the journey toward a revolutionary future.
A Bold New Future
Elon Musk’s vision for the Tesla RoboTaxi isn’t solely about transportation; it’s about redefining the very concept of mobility and questioning the established norms of how society perceives vehicles. As Musk sees it, the introduction of fully autonomous vehicles signifies a pivotal moment in human history—one that could fundamentally alter our cities, economies, and daily lives. “We’re going to move to just truly massive scale—scale that no company has ever achieved in the history of humanity,” Musk has said, emphasizing the magnitude of his aspirations.
One of the most radical aspects of Musk’s vision is the notion that, in the future, owning a non-autonomous car will appear as outdated as operating a horse-drawn carriage. “In the future, consumers will want to outlaw people driving their own cars because it is unsafe,” Musk has predicted. This statement reflects his belief that once autonomous vehicles become the norm, human driving will be viewed as an unnecessary risk—a sentiment that could lead to significant cultural and legal shifts.
Musk’s plans for the RoboTaxi network also suggest a broader transformation in how we think about car ownership and urban planning. By enabling vehicles to operate almost continuously, rather than sitting idle for most of the day, Tesla’s RoboTaxis could significantly reduce the number of cars needed on the road. “The average use of a passenger vehicle is only about 10 hours per week out of 168 hours,” Musk explained. With autonomous vehicles, he envisions that usage could increase significantly, leading to fewer cars on the road, less congestion , and more efficient use of urban space.
This shift could have profound economic implications as well. Musk has frequently highlighted the financial advantages of a RoboTaxi system, both for Tesla and for individual owners. “The probable gross profit from a single RoboTaxi could be something on the order of $30,000 per year, ” Musk has estimated, suggesting that vehicle owners could generate significant income by sharing their cars on the network. For Tesla, this model represents a potential new revenue stream that could surpass traditional car sales, positioning the company at the forefront of a new era in mobility.
Furthermore, the broader adoption of RoboTaxis could contribute significantly to Tesla’s overarching mission of accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. By reducing the total number of vehicles required and optimizing their usage, the RoboTaxi network could lower global energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
Musk’s vision of a fleet of electric, autonomous vehicles operating at scale is not just about convenience; it’s a critical component of his strategy to combat climate change. “Massive scale full self-driving has to happen in order to transition the world to sustainable energy ,” Musk has asserted, linking the success of the RoboTaxi network directly to his broader environmental goals.
As Tesla continues to push the boundaries of what’s possible, Musk’s vision for the future of transportation remains both ambitious and thought-provoking. While challenges undoubtedly lie ahead, the potential rewards—both for Tesla and for society as a whole—are enormous. If Musk’s predictions hold true, the advent of RoboTaxis could mark the beginning of a bold new future, one where transportation is safer, more efficient, and more sustainable.
Tesla is planning to unveil its anticipated highly robotaxi later this year. Here’s what we know so far about the “Cybercab.”
Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has shown a growing disinterest in the car business. He emphasizes that Tesla’s future depends on artificial intelligence and robotics rather than selling more Teslas. A key part of this vision centers around self-driving cars that can be used as “robotaxis” to completely eliminate the need for human drivers.
A test prototype of what seems to be Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi was spotted by a Reddit user who claims to work at the Warner Bros. studio in Los Angeles. The photo below shows a heavily camouflaged two-door bright yellow prototype.
The anticipated highly Robotaxi will be revealed on October 10. Sources have revealed that the unveiling will occur at the Warner Bros. Discovery movie studio in the Los Angeles area. The studio, situated in Burbank, is a historic film and television production set where iconic TV shows like Friends and films like Batman were filmed.
However, Musk doesn’t want to rely on standard Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs for his Uber competitor. Tesla is working on a dedicated robotaxi vehicle, which Musk hinted may be named the “Cybercab” during a recent earnings call.
This is an extremely ambitious plan, representing the ultimate extension of Tesla’s longstanding focus on its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems. However, it is also unproven and depends on aggressive development of new technologies, uncertain consumer support, non-existent regulations, and the ability of Autopilot and FSD to withstand legal challenges and even a federal criminal investigation.
In other words, this is Musk’s biggest and riskiest move to date, and its success is far from certain. Nevertheless, let’s review what we know based on the company’s various statements and concept artwork that has been seen.
What do we know about the Tesla Robotaxi?
Musk has been talking for at least a decade about the imminent arrival of self-driving capability in Teslas. He has suggested over the years that autonomous Teslas could generate significant income for their owners by transporting passengers when they would otherwise be parked. However, none of this has materialized yet.
In recent years, Tesla executives have also discussed the concept of a purpose-built Tesla robotaxi, designed from the ground up for autonomous driving rather than just being capable of autonomous driving on occasion.
The robotaxi plan has taken precedence over more conventional, and arguably more sensible, projects at Tesla. In April, Reuters reported that Tesla had abandoned plans for an affordable mass-market vehicle, known informally as the Model 2, in favor of focusing entirely on the robotaxi. (Musk has suggested that this more affordable model is still in the pipeline, but it doesn’t appear to be a priority.)
When will the Tesla Robotaxi be revealed?
In April, Musk stated in a post on X that Tesla would showcase the robotaxi on August 8. However, in July, Bloomberg reported that Tesla intended to postpone the event until October. According to the report, Tesla’s teams required more time to develop additional robotaxi prototypes.
During Tesla’s Q2 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced that the Robotaxi’s reveal date would be October 10th. However, Tesla is known for its delays, so this date may change.
When will the Tesla Robotaxi be released?
So far, Tesla has not achieved autonomous fully driving in its current vehicles. It sells a feature marketed as “Full Self-Driving,” but this system requires driver supervision and is far from flawless.
Before deploying robotaxis without steering wheels, Tesla would need to deliver reliable self-driving technology, and it is uncertain when or if this will happen.
On Tuesday’s Q2 2024 earnings call, Musk stated in response to an investor question that Tesla would not be able to offer rides to customers until Full Self-Driving can be used without supervision. In its earnings report issued on Tuesday, Tesla stated that the ” timing of Robotaxi deployment depends on technological advancement and regulatory approval.”
The fact that the robotaxi will be unveiled this summer does not necessarily mean that it is anywhere close to being ready for production. Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck pickup in late 2019, and the first trucks did not reach customers until a full five years later. design for an upcoming supercar, the Tesla Roadster, was revealed in 2017 and has still not been released.
What will the appearance of the Tesla Robotaxi be?
We are expecting to receive specific details about the vehicle’s design in August or possibly October. In the meantime, some strong hints have emerged.
In 2022, Musk stated that the robotaxi will not have a steering wheel or pedals and described its design as “futuristic.” Musk’s biographer, Walter Isaacson, mentioned that an early design for the vehicle had a “Cybertruck futuristic feel.” This could suggest a more angular, polygonal aesthetic compared to the sleek Model 3 and Model Y.
An illustration in Elon Musk’s book depicts a small, two-seat vehicle with a teardrop shape. In April, Musk referred to the robotaxi as the Cybercab. Although it’s uncertain if that will be the model’s actual name, it would make sense given the reportedly Cybertruck-like styling.
In a recent video posted to X, Tesla appears to have released some additional hints. The clip shows what could potentially be the robotaxi’s front bumper and white interior.
Previously, Tesla stated that it would construct the robotaxi using its lower-cost, next-generation vehicle platform. However, Tesla recently announced that it’s expediting new-vehicle projects by combining its current and next-generation technologies. It’s unclear which technology will form the basis of the robotaxi.
How will Tesla’s Uber competitor function?
During an April earnings call, Musk described Tesla’s taxi service as a blend of Airbnb and Uber. The concept is that Tesla’s fleet will include both its own robotaxis and the vehicles of Tesla owners who choose to participate – meaning you own the car and when you ‘re not using it, you can “rent” it out for robotaxi duty.
This is something that Musk has promised in various forms for years. In 2019, he stated that up to a million Model 3s on US roads would be deployable as fully autonomous (SAE Level 5) robotaxis by 2020. As you might have noticed, that did not happen.
Nevertheless, Tesla is clearly moving in that direction. In its earnings report, the automaker shared some representations of what a Tesla ride-hailing app might look like.
How is Tesla’s Robotaxi different from Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox?
Waymo and Cruise, autonomous taxi companies owned by Alphabet and General Motors, respectively, both utilize modified versions of off-the-shelf electric vehicles for their operations. Waymo uses Jaguar I-Paces, while Cruise uses Chevrolet Bolts.
As they have developed their self-driving technology on public roads, both companies have utilized safety drivers who can monitor and take over if something goes awry. Cruise, which temporarily halted operations after striking a pedestrian late last year, is gradually reintroducing its vehicles with people in their drivers’ seats.
Zoox, Amazon’s self-driving startup, is developing a taxi service that utilizes purpose-built, pod-like vehicles without steering wheels. However, it is still in the testing phase and has not yet launched commercial operations.
Unlike any of those companies, Tesla asserts that it can achieve reliable self-driving capability using only cameras. Other autonomous-driving endeavors rely on more sensors, including LiDAR units that utilize lasers to create a three-dimensional image of the world. Many autonomous -vehicle experts question whether Tesla’s streamlined, vision-only approach will be successful.
What obstacles are preventing this from moving forward?
How much time do you have? First and foremost, the plan hinges on Tesla “solving” the issue of fully autonomous driving, something that many other experts have cautioned is decades away, not years, if it ever materializes. Additionally, Tesla has traditionally technologies for autonomy avoided that other automakers support, such as LIDAR. Instead, it’s attempting to train AI using cameras, sensors, and supercomputers.
Moreover, the US is not equipped for a widespread robotaxi network of any kind. While robotaxi testing and pilot programs are underway in approximately 10 states, comprehensive federal regulations for them do not exist. There are unresolved issues of accident liability and other matters that must be addressed first.
As we hinted at earlier, Tesla’s existing FSD and Autopilot technologies have been plagued by high-profile accidents, legal action, state investigations, and even a Department of Justice inquiry examining whether the automaker misled investors and consumers about the capabilities of its driver-assistance systems.
So why does the Tesla Robotaxi matter?
Tesla, its enthusiastic investors, and highly optimistic Wall Street analysts believe that autonomous driving will enable the automaker to generate substantial revenue over time. This is partly why Tesla is so valued.
As of now, it is valued at $544 billion, approximately ten times the market caps of competitors like Ford and General Motors. A functional robotaxi will be crucial if Tesla wants to live up to the expectations set by its lofty stock price.
What hardware features make a robotaxi, and what will Tesla do?
Several companies have created or announced intentions to develop a custom-designed robotaxi. While this is fascinating, the design of the vehicle is only the third most crucial element for a robotaxi service. The first essential component is a reliable and safe self-driving software system, in addition to the sensor suite.
The second crucial element is the infrastructure, which encompasses maps (or working with minimal maps), depots, storage, charging, cleaning, management, communications, customer service, remote assistance, a user app, crash management and insurance, maintenance, pricing model , and local regulator relations.
Following these aspects, there is the physical vehicle, which is actually the most visible aspect of the service from a customer standpoint. Tesla has announced plans for a robotaxi and aims to unveil concepts for the physical form in October. Their initial goal was to do so in August, but they have postponed the release. There is currently no set timeline for when Tesla will have operational software, and they have shown minimal progress on infrastructure.
Most companies have modified existing vehicles, at least for their initial projects. Some have designed custom vehicles with varying degrees of innovation. GM’s Cruise had a custom vehicle called the Origin, but it has recently put it on hold, at least for the time being . Waymo has been testing some of their relatively basic custom vehicles. Amazon’s Zoox has been focused on the custom vehicle from the beginning; it is their reason for existence.
While most Chinese companies have made modest modifications to standard cars, Baidu Apollo has unveiled a $28,000 custom vehicle. There is a wide range of opinions on what a vehicle should look like now and in the future.
Starting with a standard car provides significant economic advantages. Many companies are well-versed in manufacturing cars similar to those on the market today. It involves minimal risk. Additionally, companies can begin with much cheaper off-lease cars and resell them if they are not suitable or become too old for robotaxi service. Custom vehicles are tailored for life and entail a significant design risk.
Waymo and others have typically acquired an existing model with minor modifications, such as places for mounting sensors and hardware. These vehicles come 90% complete from the factory, and the robotaxi company finishes the rest. Contract manufacturing of this nature is easy to arrange. Some modifications, such as redundant brakes and steering motors, and full drive-by-wire, may be specific to the robotaxi model.
No steering wheel and pedals
Early modified cars still retain these, and passengers are not allowed to sit in that seat. They are utilized by safety drivers testing the vehicles and rescue drivers recovering them. The first major step in creating a robotaxi is to take a standard car design and eliminate all the components used by drivers. This entails removing numerous items, not just the wheel and pedals. It also includes most of the elements on the dashboard, as well as mirrors, adjustable driving positions, and much more.
In fact, the cost savings from the removed items may exceed the added expense of sensors and computing power! A seamless windshield is not even necessary, though front-facing passengers prefer it. Review the brochure for any modern high-quality car and peruse the complete list of features. Most of them are solely for the driver.
Most of these models still allow an authorized individual to manually drive the car using a plug-in (or even wireless) set of controls, similar to a video game steering wheel. This enables them to be manually moved when necessary.
Face-to-Face Seating
When traveling in a social group, this provides a distinctly different experience (although it is less favorable for groups of strangers). A minority of individuals find rear-facing seats uncomfortable, but they can opt for the front-facing ones. Rear-facing seats are actually safer in a forward crash. Face-to-face seating may require slightly more space and could limit recline. Some vehicles may include front seats that rotate to offer a choice.
Easy Entry
All taxis aim to facilitate easy entry and exit. Taller designs (particularly with automatic sliding doors) are popular. The Origin and Zoox feature double side sliding doors into an open area. Some designs may even resemble public transit styles, with standing room and luggage placed on the floor. This can also provide better access for passengers with limited mobility. Additionally, it is possible to create custom roll-on robotaxis specifically designed for wheelchair users.
Many options are being considered for this, but in reality, most passengers prefer using their own phone for these functions. However, specific controls such as climate adjustments, “stop ride,” and “new destination” must be easily accessible. There should also be a way to contact customer service directly without using your phone.
In the future, there might be a larger screen available, primarily used to display content from the phone for those interested in watching videos. Unlike traditional cars, most robotaxis do not have a real dashboard, only a small touchscreen.
The Back Is The Front
This is the unique feature of Zoox vehicles—there is no distinct front or back. This allows the vehicle to easily change direction by reversing, which is advantageous in tight spaces, during passenger pickups, and when needing to turn around. The Origin model looks almost the same from both the front and back but not entirely. Legally, conventional “one-way” car designs could also drive in reverse if they have the appropriate lights, but it’s not ideal for extended periods as it may surprise other drivers.
Privacy Dividers
Current robotaxi plans involve transporting individuals in small groups. In a future scenario where rides are shared, robotaxis may have compartments with individual doors to provide privacy and security from other passengers. In larger vehicles, there might be 2-seat compartments on one side.
Efficiency, or not
Robotaxis designed for short urban trips do not need to achieve high speeds. Therefore, they do not require a highly aerodynamic design. This allows for taller designs with easier entry, and some may have boxy “trapezium” shapes. Robotaxis intended for highway travel need to be lower and have a more teardrop-shaped design to reduce costs and increase electric range.
Sleeping
In the future, robotaxis may offer the option for passengers to lie down and sleep. There might even be models dedicated solely to this purpose, which would be lower in height and more efficient. Being able to sleep during long commutes and overnight trips provides a seamless travel experience where the journey does not consume waking hours, which is highly beneficial.
Half-Width or Two-Breast
The majority of trips today involves a single person on short journeys, while most of the remaining trips involve two people. As a result, vehicles with half-width offer significantly lower construction and operating costs, require less parking space, and may even have the ability to split in certain areas. In the future, they may have access to special lanes. Some companies prefer a short 2-seater model, such as the Rimac.
Cost
For early robotaxis, cost is not a major consideration. In the initial years, with limited competition, fares will be higher. As the market develops and competition increases, cost will become a crucial factor, leading to the use of smaller, efficient vehicles aimed at delivering more value for the cost.
Updatable Interior And Hardware
Electric vehicles may have long lifespans, particularly if batteries can be replaced. Interiors will wear out over hundreds of thousands of miles of use. Therefore, they may be designed to be modular and easily replaceable and upgradable. similarly, hardware like computers and sensors may receive field upgrades due to the rapid pace of innovation in this field.
A robotaxi must be easy to clean, ideally with automatic cleaning capabilities. Additionally, the ability for automatic charging is important. Since the vehicle is autonomous, the charging stations only need minimal robotics to use standard plugs. More innovative ideas could involve battery swapping for quick mid-day turnaround and a smaller battery pack, as well as an ice chamber to store cooling “energy” more cost-effectively than lithium batteries.
Tesla?
While Tesla has not made any official announcements, there has been speculation about a two-seater vehicle similar to the Verne, positioned side by side without a steering wheel, or a vehicle that can function as both a personal car and a robotaxi. To achieve the latter, it would need to have a fully or partially retractable wheel, as the wheel would be unnecessary during robotaxi operations, but essential for supervised driving outside the service area. (Even a car capable of driving on most roads still requires a limited service area as a robotaxi.) At present, it is unlikely that we will see anything like the Zoox or Zeekr.
We’ve been hearing about Tesla’s Robotaxi concept for several years, and it seems that we may finally be approaching the realization of this vehicle. Here is all the information we have about the Robotaxi.
Official Announcement
Musk made an official announcement on X yesterday, revealing that the Tesla Robotaxi will be unveiled on August 8th, 2024. The last time Tesla unveiled a new vehicle was in November 2019 with the debut of the Cybertruck. Prior to that, the Roadster 2.0 and the Tesla Semi were unveiled at the same event in 2017, making these occasions quite special, occurring only once every few years.
While there is a possibility that Tesla may need to change the Robotaxi’s unveiling date, it is exhilarating to consider that Tesla could be just four months away from revealing this next-generation vehicle.
Robotaxis and Next-generation Vehicle
Another detail about the Robotaxi emerged yesterday when Musk responded to a post by Sawyer Merritt. Sawyer mentioned that Tesla’s upcoming “$25k” vehicle and the Robotaxi would share the same platform, and that the Robotaxi would essentially be the same vehicle without a steering wheel . Musk replied to the post with a simple “looking” emoji.
It’s not surprising that two of Tesla’s upcoming smaller vehicles will be based on the same platform, but it’s more intriguing that Musk chose to respond with that emoji when the post the Robotaxi being the “Model 2” without a steering wheel. This raises the possibility of Tesla not only unveiling the Robotaxi at the August 8th event but also its upcoming next-generation car.
Production Timeline
During Tesla’s Q1 2022 earnings call, Musk briefly discussed the timeline for Tesla’s Robotaxi, stating that they intend to announce the vehicle in 2023 and commence mass production in 2024.
aiming for a 2023 unveiling, a late 2024 date now seems feasible for Tesla. However, it now appears that the Initially Robotaxi and the next-generation vehicle will share many similarities, suggesting that the production date for the Robotaxi could align with that of the next-generation vehicle, which is currently scheduled to begin in “late 2025”.
The challenge in introducing an autonomous taxi, as the Robotaxi is intended to be, lies in the self-driving aspect. While Tesla has made significant progress with FSD v12, the first non-beta version, it remains a level-2 system that requires active driver supervision. Achieving a fully vehicle represents a substantial leap from where autonomous Tesla’s FSD currently stands, but as demonstrated by the transition from FSD v11 to v12, a lot can change in the next 18 to 24 months.
While we anticipate Tesla’s continued focus on bringing its more affordable, next-generation vehicle to market ahead of potential competitors, the production date for the Robotaxi may continue to shift in line with Tesla’s progress on FSD.
However, in April 2022, during the inauguration of Tesla’s new factory in Austin, Texas, Musk made waves by announcing that the company would be developing a dedicated Robotaxi vehicle that would have a “quite futuristic-looking” appearance.
Diverse Range of Robotaxis
As we move towards a world of “robotaxis,” it makes sense to continuously evolve the vehicle’s interior to cater to customer needs, such as incorporating face-to-face seating, large sliding doors for easy access, 4-wheel steering, and easier cleaning.
Tesla could potentially offer a range of Robotaxis tailored to specific needs. For instance, a vehicle better suited for resting, allowing passengers to sleep during the journey.
Another vehicle could resemble a home office, equipped with multiple monitors and accessories, enabling occupants to start working as soon as they enter the vehicle. Features like these could significantly enhance the quality of life for some individuals, giving them an extra hour or more in their day.
The variety of Robotaxis doesn’t have to stop there. There could be other vehicles designed specifically for entertainment, such as watching a movie, or those that facilitate relaxation and socializing with friends, similar to what one would expect in a limousine.
Lowest Cost Per Mile
Elon Musk mentioned during Tesla’s Q1 2022 financial results call that the focus of its robotaxi would be on achieving the lowest cost per mile, and it would be highly optimized for autonomy. This confirms that the robotaxi will not come equipped with a steering wheel.
Musk stated, “There are several other exciting innovations around it, but its primary optimization is to achieve the lowest fully considered cost per mile or km when factoring in everything.”
Tesla acknowledged during the call that its vehicles are generally not affordable for many people due to their high cost. Musk sees the introduction of Robotaxis as a way to offer customers “the lowest cost-per-mile of transport they’ve ever experienced.”
The CEO is confident that the cost per mile of the vehicle will be even cheaper than a subsidized bus ticket. If Tesla can entire accomplish this, it could significantly transform the automotive industry and redefine car ownership. The question arises: Is Tesla’s future still in selling vehicles or in providing a robotaxi service?
FSD Sensor Suite
Tesla has not disclosed any details about the sensor suite intended for the robotaxi. However, given their extensive work in vision and advancements in FSD, it is anticipated to be similar or identical to the current suite, possibly with additional cameras or faster processing.
In 2022, Musk issued a caution: “With respect to full self-driving, of any technology development I’ve been involved in, I’ve never really seen more false dawns or where it seems like we’re going to break through, but we don’t, as I’ve seen in full self-driving. And ultimately what it comes down to is that to sell full self-driving, you actually have to solve real-world artificial intelligence, which nobody has solved.”
Musk added, “The entire road system is designed for biological neural nets and eyes. Therefore, to solve driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with, or really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year.”
With the Robotaxi reveal approaching, it may not be long before we learn more about Tesla’s future plans and its truly autonomous vehicles.
